And that’s a wrap folks, September comes to an end, another great month fuelled by a couple of A+ trades. As we head into October and the elections, it’s likely we see volatility increase and some erratic moves across the board.
September was a great reminder of just how quickly under/over positioned trades can correct. It’s a reminder that the “smart” money are often unable to even beat a benchmark and that betting against the consensus can be an extremely profitable proposition.
Oil names continue to get shorted, with sentiment getting so biased they’re now mocking old buffet. Given how much extra energy is required for all current and future innovation, the long here is starting to look real good.
The Mag-7 remains the most over-crowded trade of them all. Likely one of the most over-crowded you’ll ever see.
Small caps, biotech and just about everything “due to move up on rate cuts” is massively lagging behind. On the larger timeframes things are still bullish, there’s just a lot of chop and fades the past few weeks.
As far as new trades, I have no interest today. I am happy with my current positioning and simply need to exercise some patience here, will be sitting this one out and waiting for better opportunities to present themselves.
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